So Here We Are Again Facing Another Winter Storm

Ok Everyone Here We Go Again.....I do know that it will be cold, blustery, and we will be seeing winter weather for at least half of the State of Mississippi.  Like the last Winter Storm Threat we faced we aggravated some people based on the forecasts that were made and what occurred let me say this: forecasting weather is a science, and an inexact science at that.  As bold and robust as the technology is that we have today in the weather world, many people think that it would be just that easy to figure out what will happen and where, and it's simply not.  So we do our best to forecast things---and winter weather in the deep south will always be a precipitation amount and temperature challenge---and even for the best forecasters and best computers it's a struggle.  Remember also that what you get at your house, is not what will happen 50 miles in any direction from you, or 100 miles--so we try to break things down, and to also provide generalized graphics.  My attempt is to give you as much access to both sources.....So I will attempt to share with you the data that exists tonight as I write this, many of the pictures/forecasts I include in here auto-update as new forecasts are generated, and I will keep updates additionally on here and facebook as always.

There's a *WINTER STORM WARNING* In Effect For Much Of MS Which is in Effect depending on where you live from Thur AM to Fri AM----You may click on the bold colored link below and scroll through to find your county/town and it will better break down the expected timing and local expected impacts:

Winter Storm Warning Details---Find The Time/Impacts For Your Area

**FREQUENTLY UPDATED SECTION:** I will add every several hours updates here to what's being reported and going on. 5:45 PM Thu:  The precipitation stretches from a  line from Natchez-Vicksburg-Kosciusko-Columbus and South.  The band Central MS experienced in the early afternoon was enough to cause some bridges to accumulate ice and wrecks to happen.  I-55, I-20, I-220, And The Stack All Have Had Major Multiple Traffic Accidents. There will be breaks in the action for different area's but we expect the precipitation to significantly pick back up around **9PM through about 9 AM Fri** there will be significant bands of frozen precip to increase in coverage and intensity and parts of MS will be facing a crippling ice and winter weather scenario.   Weather Models Indicate That The Precip To Fall Over Central MS Overnight Will Almost Certainly Be All Freezing Rain Leading To A Solid 1/4-1/2+ of Ice.  Traffic and Travel Conditions will go downhill quickly---every one should complete travel and remain off the roads or if you have to be out use extreme caution.  The Low Pressure Around Houston, TX has begun to move east in the gulf, and will throw large amounts of moisture over cold air, which will result in the Winter Weather Scenario.  Remember that it's cold enough everywhere that whatever falls: snow (will stick), sleet (will accumulate), and freezing rain (will quickly glaze surfaces).

Here's a graphical information cast which will auto-update through the day with current timing, what's happening on radar and where (so the title/subject will change but will be the latest product):

Now expanding things to a more large-scale window of the multi-state area breaking things down, **ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY** starting with a graphical map which will auto-update throughout the whole event (so whatever you see there when you login is accurate):

Currently we are thinking that a corridor from about Natchez-McComb-Jackson-Kosciusko area will possibly be hit with the largest accumulations of ice.  The other area's will see a mixed bag or primarily other types as depicted by the maps.  Temps in central ms have fallen into the mid-upper 20's to right around freezing to the south we really don't expect temps for much of the area to get at-or-above freezing till sometime Friday AM (hopefully by 9 AM).  So there could be significant accumulations of ice in some area's.

You can at anytime click on this site National Weather Service Jackson, MS and see a regional map--which will look like a paint wheel for an artist with all the colors---but either click on where you think you approx live in your county, or type in the upper left hand corner of the page your town/zip for the absolute latest official forecasts.

As with any Winter Storm Situation----if you need groceries or are low on some stuff, grab them early if you live in an area that might be impacted for a day or two (you will use them anyway); if you need gas, go ahead and fill up a little early (you will use it anyway); if you need to check on blankets, flashlight batteries, etc go ahead (you will need them anyway).  People sometimes feel as if the meteorologist panic people or enjoy the hype or paint a worst case scenario---and we have to give you all the data we can, and then you have to be reasonable and prudent with it.

Now to round it out....Friday temps will warm in most area's and we will see things go above freezing--and change to mostly rain---however, there could still be a mixed bag of precip in some area's and that evening temps will fall below freezing again and there might be some light snow or freezing drizzle as the system completely moves out.

Severe Weather (Tues) Cold & Blustery (Wed-Wknd) Winter Weather (Thu/Fri Nights)

Let me just start by saying the forecast for the next week is MUCH MUCH like the New Years Even-Following Week Forecast (don't blame me!)

A potent cold front (which will most likely will be creating the LARGEST winter storm of the season for the rest of the country) will be starting off in our area.  An area of low pressure will develop to our west and move from approx Shreveport, LA to NE of Memphis, TN during the day Tuesday.  At that time the low pressure center will be deepening (strengthen), and have a strong cold front along with it.  At the same time upper level (which simply means when you think of the sky above you) dynamics (the "fuel" or ingredients we look for as signatures of severe weather and outbreaks) will be fairly high on some of the scales.

Damaging Winds up to 80 mph (in the delta primarily) and weaker tornadoes are possible.  Damaging winds 60-70mph, and stronger tornadoes are possible mainly from Brookhaven-Hattiesburg-Meridian area where the dynamics are most favorable.  With the squall line it's possible to see a tornado in any area with this system---however this shouldn't be a repeat of the tornado outbreak on New Years Eve.  While we might see a tornado or two (the risk is pretty low) we will more likely see a larger number of damaging wind reports. Before we were concerned with possible flash flooding however with the fast moving pace of the line of storms that concern has diminished to almost zero; however you could still pick up a quick 1"+ of rain.

We are currently thinking the squall line will be developing or approaching the MS River Counties around the 12 o'clock hour and push east; the squall line should be mainly east of the I-55 Corridor by 4 PM, entering East MS and clearing the enter state by 7 PM.

Timing Of Squall Line And Severe Weather


During the day on Tuesday since this storm system will be "winding up" and be so large and powerful we can expect very gusty winds up to 40+ mph through the day and even after the line of severe weather passes (a wind advisory is in place to cover this.  Once the front quickly passes (which will be right along the severe weather) winds will remain gusty and colder arctic air will quickly come in behind it.

Now to the last part---the cold and possible winter type precipitation?!  It will be cold and blustery behind the front with high/low temps well below average, and wind chills making most temps feel an even 10 degrees colder than they actually will be.  We have two shots of light winter weather Thursday Night and Friday Night.  This would be nothing more than something interesting to talk about or watch fall from the sky---


Winter Weather Possibility